Decision Making with Probability & Statistics, Do it Right ! Course Syllabus
Full curriculum breakdown — modules, lessons, estimated time, and outcomes.
Overview (80-120 words) describing structure and time commitment.
Module 1: Common Probability Misconceptions
Estimated time: 0.5 hours
- Misinterpretations of chance
- Intuition errors
- Probability illusions
- Analyze real examples of intuitive failures
Module 2: Statistical Inference Errors
Estimated time: 0.75 hours
- Sampling biases
- Misreading p-values
- Misuse of statistical summaries
- Evaluate case scenarios for statistical missteps
Module 3: Biases & Fallacies in Data Judgement
Estimated time: 0.75 hours
- Base-rate fallacy
- Confirmation bias
- Framing effects
- Regression to the mean
- Corrective strategies for common judgment errors
Module 4: Applying Clear Decision Frameworks
Estimated time: 1 hour
- Structured decision-making steps
- Data-driven judgment techniques
- Application of clarity tools in business decisions
- Minimizing reasoning errors in leadership contexts
Prerequisites
- Familiarity with basic reasoning and judgment in professional settings
- No prior statistics knowledge required
- Openness to self-reflection on decision habits
What You'll Be Able to Do After
- Identify common probability and statistics pitfalls in real-world decisions
- Recognize psychological biases that distort data interpretation
- Apply corrective strategies to improve judgment accuracy
- Use structured frameworks for data-informed leadership decisions
- Avoid costly reasoning errors in risk, strategy, and policy evaluation